a) there is no “lag” between positives and deaths
b) the wider the gap between positives and deaths, vis a vis: where we are now, the better.

any way you slice it deaths are below epidemic levels and trending lower:
CDC data. The Coronavirus (Wuhan Flu) mortality rate in the U.S. has dropped so low that the CDC may soon stop calling the virus an epidemic. The agency admitted 3 Jul that the COVID mortality rate has dropped below the epidemic threshold.